[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices dropped slightly on July 1, with China's manufacturing PMI for June at 49.7%, rising for two consecutive months

SMM Nickel News on June 30:

Macro News:

(1) On Monday, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, reiterated that he still believes the US Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate target once this year, while stating that there is currently no urgency to take action, as there are still many uncertainties regarding the impact of trade tariffs on the inflation dynamics of the US economy. When discussing the expectation of one interest rate cut in 2025, Bostic expressed this view at an event hosted by Market News International. He also pointed out plans for three interest rate cuts next year.

(2) Data released on the 30th by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level generally maintained expansion. In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, rising for two consecutive months. The manufacturing prosperity level continued to improve, and the prosperity scope expanded, with the new orders index rising back above 50%.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM1# refined nickel price is 120,000-122,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,450 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,500-2,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508) showed a volatile and declining trend today. As of the midday close, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,340 yuan/mt, down 640 yuan/mt, or 0.5%.

Macro sentiment has marginally improved, and in the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate mainly around the 120,000 yuan/mt level. However, with downstream demand currently in the off-season, the long-term surplus pattern of nickel is difficult to reverse, and the price center may gradually move downward.